ICSG: World Refined Copper Surplus Intensifies

According to preliminary data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the world's refined copper surplus in the first half of 2024 increased fourfold from a year ago, mainly due to production growth and the resumption of mine production. ICSG's August 2024 bulletin shows that global mine copper production in the first half of the year increased by 3.1% year-on-year, mainly due to the recovery of affected production capacity in Chile, Indonesia and the United States, and the new production of mining projects in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

In the first half of the year, refined copper production increased by 6.2%. ICSG believes that this is mainly the result of a sharp increase in production in China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. ICSG data shows that the two countries account for 53% of the world's total refined copper production. Driven by the construction and expansion of copper smelters, China's refined copper production is estimated to have increased by 7%, while the Democratic Republic of the Congo will increase by 12% due to the continued commissioning of new and expanded hydrometallurgical smelters. From the demand side, the world's refined copper consumption increased by 3.3% in the first half of 2024, and demand was unbalanced among regions. China's consumption increased by about 3.5%, net imports increased by 9%, but exports soared by 74%.

As supply recovers and demand grows slowly, the world's refined copper surplus in the first half of 2024 is estimated to be about 488,000 tons based on China's consumption, a significant increase from the surplus of 115,000 tons in the first half of 2023. The ICSG report believes that if China's inventory is taken into account, the surplus will be as high as 573,000 tons, which is also far greater than the 150,000 tons in the first half of 2023.